Impact of Climatic Variations on Storage Reservoir Systems

Within IIASA's Enironment Program, one of the objectives of the Water Resources Project is to investigate the impact of environmental and economic changes on water resources management. The climate/water resources problem raises a number of scientific questions that must be addressed to answer policy needs reflecting potential effects of global climatic change on regional water management, and possible adaptive measures that could be taken. Historically water resource systems have been designed on the assumption that future climatic and hydrologic variations might be expected to be similar to those observed during the last century. However, man's activity may cause significant influence on the hydrological regime in various parts of the earth. This paper concerns the possible impacts of long-term hydrological non-stationarity on design and operation of water reservoir systems. As man-made lakes are essential tools in controlling the effects of hydrological variability, the paper considers the relationship between storage capacity, water demand and various performance criteria of reservoir management for a number of scenarios. It may be expected that the impact of climatic change can be detected particularly well in those elements of water systems that accumulate climatic impacts over long periods, such as groundwater, lakes and reservoirs. It may be seen from the conclusions of the paper that even relatively small changes in the stochastic characteristics of the inflow to the reservoir may be amplified into much larger changes in reliability and other operational criteria. The application of methodological tools presented here is illustrated by the Lake Kariba case study. This man-made impoundment, one of the largest in the world, is located in the Zambezi river basin. In the past three years, Water Resources Project has been deeply involved in studying water-oriented policy problems in southern Africa in close cooperation with the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the Southern African Development Coordination Conference (SADCC). This shows not only IIASA's interest in problems of the developing countries, but also reflects the interconnection between global environmental processes and regional economic and technical problems

On the Sensitivity of Runoff to Climate Change

Human activities associated with the utilization of natural resources benefit societies, but may also cause serious disturbances in the natural environment. In particular, changes in climatic processes may affect both the water resources availability and demand for water by agriculture, industry and population. There is need for an intensive research on possible consequences of climatic variations on hydrological processes, as well as on development of methods for incorporating hydrological uncertainties into planning and operation of water resource systems. The IIASA Water Resources Project concentrates its activity on the effects of anthropogenic changes on inland waters on a global and regional scale. This paper deals with the sensitivity of river runoff to changes in precipitation, air temperature and net radiation. The problem is controversial, mostly due to difficulties in relating the outputs of General Circulation Models to the main hydrological fluxes. At the same time a quantitative assessment of runoff changes due to variations in climate forcing is a prerequisite for rational decision making in water management. The author's discussion of this important issue may contribute to the better understanding of complex interdependence of climatic and hydrological phenomena

57P Przedoperacyjna ocena angiogenezy w rakach płaskobłonkowych krtani a obecność przerzutów w węzłach chłonnych szyjnych. Doniesienie wstępne

Obecność ognisk przerzutowych w węzłach chłonnych jest najważniejszym czynnikiem prognostycznym w przebiegu raka krtani. Kwalifikacja chorych do lymfadenektomii oparta wyłącznie na ocenie klinicznej węzłów jest mało dokładna, szczególnie u chorych z palpacyjnie niewyczuwalnymi węzłami chłonnymi. Nierzadko usuwane są węzły bez zmian nowotworowych, co wskazuje na konieczność poszukiwania nowych metod, pozwalających na precyzyjniejszą selekcję chorych, u których obecność przerzutów w węzłach jest wysoce prawdopodobna.W ostatnich latach pojawia się coraz więcej doniesień wskazujących na powiązania pomiędzy stopniem unaczynienia niektórych nowotworów złośliwych a ich zdolnością do dawania przerzutów. Zależności takie opisano m.in. w rakach piersi, gruczołu krokowego, jelita grubego. Dane odnoszące się do raków płasko-nabłonkowych krtani są skąpe i niejednoznaczne.Celem niniejszej pracy było ustalenie, czy nasilenie angiogenezy w rakach płaskonabłonkowych krtani, oceniane w wycinkach przedoperacyjnych, wiąże się z obecnością przerzutów w węzłach chłonnych.Badaniom poddano wycinki przedoperacyjne pochodzące od 40 pacjentów z rakiem płaskonabłonkowym krtani, utrwalane w zbuforowanej 10% formalinie. Naczynia uwidoczniono przy pomocy reakcji immunohistochemicznej z przeciwciałami monoklonalnymi przeciwko czynnikowi VIII (von Willebrandta) i liczono je w co najmniej 3 polach mikroskopowych wybranych jako najobfitsze w produkty reakcji przy powiększeniu 400x. Wyniki sumowano i obliczano średnią arytmetyczną.Liczba naczyń wahała się od 6 do 38,5. W grupie chorych z przerzutami w węzłach chłonnych (n=18) liczba naczyń wynosiła średnio 20, natomiast w grupie chorych bez przerzutów (n=22) 16,7. Różnica ta nie wykazała istotności statystycznej.Uzyskane wyniki wskazują na konieczność poszukiwania innych wskaźników morfologicznych, które mogłyby mieć zastosowanie w bardziej precyzyjnym określeniu ryzyka przerzutów w węzłach chłonnych u chorych z rakiem płaskonabłonkowym krtani

Sensitivity of Water Balance to Climate Change and Variability

The IIASA Water Resources Project addresses the development and application of methods and procedures needed to identify policy strategies for water resources planning and operation. Due to population growth, industrial and agricultural development, increased pollution and the impact of global climatic change, the reliability of water supply may substantially decrease in various parts of the world, causing serious social and economic problems. There is a need for studies on possible policy actions, aimed at the development of more resilient and more robust water systems, based on a sound understanding of geophysical processes which regulate the hydrological cycle in a changing environment. This paper concerns methodological tools for the sensitivity analysis of the water balance components to changing climatic forcings. It presents a new meso-scale hydrological model based on the stochastic storage theory, and its application to the sensitivity analysis and to water balance impact studies. The model allows to calculate runoff characteristics, evaporation and catchment storage on the basis of standard climatological data, and eventually on the basis of alternative climate scenarios. It was tested for a number of river catchments in Europe and Africa. The possible effects of the expected changes in air temperature and precipitation will give rise to various problems in many fields of water resource management. For this reason, the paper may be of interest not only to hydrologists, but also to decision makers in water industry

The Operation of Multiple Reservoir Systems

The purpose of this workshop was to discuss, compare and evaluate various methods of operating, and determining operating policies for multi-purpose, multiple reservoir systems. While total reservoir capacities are known, the allocation of various storage volume zones within the reservoirs to various purposes, such as water supply or flood control, may vary in time and be dependent on reservoir operating policy. In the guidelines for preparation of the papers included in this volume, it was stressed that discussion should cover reservoir operation for all possible hydrological situations, i.e., in periods of flood, normal flow, and drought conditions. The importance of procedures used to determine when an extreme situation (such as drought), begins and ends, was emphasized, especially with respect to possible changes in reservoir operation. The participants were requested to discuss how operating policies might differ, depending on whether the reservoirs are in series or are parallel. Also, they were requested to distinguish between operation of "large" over-year storage reservoirs and "small" within-year storage reservoirs. If short-term hydrological forecasting and real-time control models were to be used, the workshop discussion would consider how these could be used together with long-term operating policies. Some 30 participants from 13 countries presented 17 papers at the workshop, all of which are included in these proceedings. The first nine provide an overview of how multiple reservoir systems are operated in certain countries. The remaining papers report in more detail on diverse case studies and provide discussion of some specific issues related to the subject of the workshop

Signal of Backscattered Electrons From Multiple Marks in Dependence on Mark Profile

The backscattered electron signal can be detected using a solid state detector system. Because this signal is affected by the surface topography it is necessary to determine the optimal detection condition for a registration mark detection in the electron-beam lithography and for an automatic topographical surface reconstruction. The BSE signal from surface marks has been measured using semiconductor detectors with a small collection angle. Calculations of the BSE signal have been carried out by means of a simplified model of electron backscattering. The signal shape depends on some parameters of the mark profile, such as length, height and inclination angle of mark facets. However the effect of the detection angle on the BSE signal is more fundamental

Color Screening and Quark-Quark Interactions in Finite Temperature QCD

We analyze the screening of static diquark sources in 2-flavor QCD and compare results with the screening of static quark-antiquark pairs. We show that a two quark system in a fixed color representations is screened at short distances like a single quark source in the same color representation whereas at large distances the two quarks are screened independently. At high temperatures we observe that the relative strength of the interaction in diquark and quark-antiquark systems, respectively, obeys Casimir scaling. We use this result to examine the possible existence of heavy quark-quark bound states in the high temperature phase of QCD. We find support for the existence of $bb$ states up to about $2T_c$ while $cc$ states are unlikely to be formed above $T_c$.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Cosmological aspects of the unimodular-mimetic f(G)f(\mathcal{G}) gravity

In this work we introduce and study the unimodular-mimetic $f(\mathcal{G})$ gravity, where unimodular and mimetic constraints are incorporated through corresponding Lagrange multipliers. We present field equations governing this theory and discuss their main properties. By using the reconstruction scheme, we obtain quadratic unimodular-mimetic $f(\mathcal{G})=A\mathcal{G}^2$ gravity capable of describing hybrid expansion law and the power law evolution. Furthermore, we employ an inverted reconstruction technique in order to derive specific $f(\mathcal{G})$ function that reproduces the Hubble rate of symmetric bounce. The unimodular-mimetic $f(\mathcal{G})=A\mathcal{G}^2$ is also shown to be compatible with the BICEP2/Keck and Planck data. To this end, we incorporate updated constraints on the scalar-to-tensor ratio and spectral index, utilizing a perfect fluid approach to the slow-roll parameters. Through an analysis of that kind, we demonstrate that the theoretical framework presented here can indeed characterize inflation that agrees with the observational findings. Consequently, the introduced extension appears to have potential to describe and encompass a wide spectrum of cosmological models.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures, appendi

Lublin-Vistula Case Study

Making optimum use of the water resources is a task which long has engaged human effort and which has, in recent decades, been studied within the framework of the integrated regional development plans. The "integrated development" of a region means the orderly marshalling of all its resources to promote human welfare. It is evident, however, that the influence of development of a given region upon the rest of the national economy is in most of the cases considerable. Moreover, the investment needs of any development scheme are closely linked to the needs of the whole economy. These introductory comments are especially relevant to the water resources development schemes. It is now widely recognized that individual water projects -- whether single or multipurpose -- cannot as a rule be undertaken with optimum benefit for the people affected before there is at least the broad outline of a plan for the entire drainage area. Although this paper concentrates on the Lublin region, some thoughts are also given to the related problems in the upper portion of the Vistula Basin. Information concerning the entire basin is problem-oriented. A description of the basin and its water resources is presented in some of the earlier IIASA documents. The paper ends with the formulation of a proposal for the Water Resources Sub-Project to be implemented within the framework of the Lublin-Vistula Research Program